Economist Hatidža Jahić, a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Sarajevo, commented to the media whether a global recession is inevitable
Economist Hatidža Jahić, a professor at the Faculty of Economics in Sarajevo, answered the question of whether a global recession is inevitable due to the war in the Middle East: "Further escalation of the conflict in the Middle East represents a significant challenge for the global economy and brings a slight risk of recession. This conflict comes after the recent global upheaval caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which leaves the world economy in a somewhat fragile state with relatively limited resilience to additional shocks as, in fact, the global economy is still facing significant disruptions.
However, the potential for wider regional conflict raises concerns about the possibility of reduced global economic growth, renewed energy and food price increases, and general global instability. This concern stems from the fact that world economic activities are sensitive to fluctuations in energy prices (oil and gas) with potential effects on the growth of inflation and the spread of economic instability.
In addition, concerns about increasing global insecurity further increase its dependence on events in the Middle East, which accounts for a third of the world's oil market. The eventual increase in oil prices, which is a realistically possible consequence of these conflicts, is inevitably associated with significant economic disturbances, as was the case during the periods of oil shocks in the 1970s, also caused by war events preceded by various political conflicts.
That scenario, which includes drops and frequent changes in oil prices, can additionally affect the decline in food production and increase insecurity in its supply chains. Therefore, this situation shows the complexity of current geopolitical events and their potential to significantly influence global economic trends."
